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Weekly CPI – inflation stood at 7.7% as of 9 June – we expect 7.8-7.9% YoY for full June


Our View: The shock on the pork market translated into an upturn in prices across meat-related goods, notably chicken and eggs. Thus, although pork prices continued to lose growth pace, chicken prices gathered pace. Since the start of April pork inflation contributed near 0.25pp into the annual headline CPI increase, while chicken – 0.11pp. It is also worth noticing that egg prices have been accelerating over the last four weeks, adding 0.04pp to the headline inflation, which stood as of 9 June at 7.7% YoY.

At the same time, veg. inflation benefits from the poor harvest last year and has shaved off 0.10pp from the headline reading since the end of 1Q14. This trend is likely to strengthen further in the coming weeks, supporting our call for strong disinflation since early July to 5.8% YoY at the yearend.

Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst


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