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RUB: marking time

Yesterday’s session in RUB was quite interesting, but in the end RUB closed just marginally stronger, gaining 0.10-0.15% against USD (34.35) and BASKET (39.99). However, during the day RUB attempted to break down below 40.00 vs. BASKET, while USDRUB touched 34.23 as crude oil reached the USD 112.00/bbl mark. Also, exporters have probably been actively selling hard currency preparing for Monday’s MET. The move faded away in the second half of the day amid an escalation of violence in the east of Ukraine. News about the marginal cut in FX interventions (see above) went completely unnoticed. Meanwhile, the average EM FX index firmed 0.10% yesterday, with TRY (+0.56% vs. USD) leading the way despite the somewhat unexpected monetary policy easing by the CBRT. Hence, RUB was trading broadly in line with global peers yesterday.
Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst


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