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Rates: move back to pre-CBR hike level

On Tuesday, RUB continued to perform well as the markets continued to buy RUB on the bounce. RUBBASK closed almost 0.8% lower at 41.80 and USDRUB also closed 0.8% lower at 35.65. RUB looks to be outperforming its EM peers by 1% lately but we do not see any strong reason for the rally in RUB to continue today ahead of the long holidays and thin market liquidity until mid-May. In our view, investors might prefer neutral positions to their RUB longs amid substantial geopolitical risks. Moreover, RUBBASK is about 1% above the no intervention zone that has recently served as a good anchor to local lows in BASKET.
Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst


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