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RUB: holding ground

Yesterday, RUB traded in a rather narrow range and closed barely changed at the end of the day. Hence, BASKET’s swings were limited to 41.75-41.90, whilst USDRUB moved inside 35.65-35.75. At the end of the session, USDRUB settled at 35.69 and BASKET at 41.79. Meanwhile, RUB looked better than the rest of the EM FX universe, as the former weakened near 0.25% against USD while TRY and ZAR were down 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. It looks as though RUB is enjoying support from high crude oil prices, coupled with ongoing tax payments, which suggests some increase in export selling hard currency. As far as the former is concerned, yesterday Brent remained above USD 109/bbl. Separately, we highlight CFTC data to 15 April showed both WTI non-commercial and managed futures longs up 2-3% to just below recent record highs. Meanwhile, short positions in both categories remain close to nine-year lows.
Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst


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