According to Rosstat, CPI growth reached 0.97% during the entire of March. Over the last week, average daily price growth slightly advanced to 0.031% (vs. 0.029% the previous week), staying three times higher than levels observed in March 2013 (0.011%).
The latest weekly print implies monthly CPI has increased 0.97% over the whole of March, which featured 6.9% inflation in annual terms.
Looking forward, we expect upward pressure from the weaker currency to persist over 2Q14, keeping headline inflation elevated around 7.0% and spurring core inflation higher into the 5.5–6.0% range (vs. 4.5–4.6% during the previous six months). That said, disinflation is set to come later in 2H14 against a backdrop of new tariff policy, a general economic downturn and muted wage inflation.