Rosstat has unveiled its revised
The most surprising part of the report was the growth upturn to 2.0% YoY during 4Q13, which topped our and consensus expectations of 1.4%. This came mainly as a result of revisions in quarterly prints for the entire year: 1Q13 and 2Q13 were revised down to 0.8% and 1.0% from 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, and 3Q13 revised up slightly to 1.3% from 1.2%.
The revised numbers now look more in line with the 2H13 technical rebound theme we were expecting in 2H13 on the back of a spike in agriculture (+10% YoY in 4Q13 on the back of harvest normalisation) and gas exports (+18.1% YoY in 2H13, according to MinEnergy). Also of interest, the revisions now point to a more visible slowdown trend in household consumption (from the 7.3% gain in 4Q12 to 4.1% in the latter part of last year), while inventory destocking was not as large as was previously suggested.