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FY13 GDP growth confirmed at 1.3% YoY


Rosstat has unveiled its revised full-year GDP numbers for 2011–2013 and published its first estimate for 4Q13 GDP statistics. The preliminary 1.3% YoY print for real GDP growth in FY13 was approved, as faster slack in FAI was offset by stronger growth in net exports. Meanwhile, the nominal volume was revised marginally upwards to RUB 66,755bn (or USD 2,149bn).

The most surprising part of the report was the growth upturn to 2.0% YoY during 4Q13, which topped our and consensus expectations of 1.4%. This came mainly as a result of revisions in quarterly prints for the entire year: 1Q13 and 2Q13 were revised down to 0.8% and 1.0% from 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, and 3Q13 revised up slightly to 1.3% from 1.2%.

The revised numbers now look more in line with the 2H13 technical rebound theme we were expecting in 2H13 on the back of a spike in agriculture (+10% YoY in 4Q13 on the back of harvest normalisation) and gas exports (+18.1% YoY in 2H13, according to MinEnergy). Also of interest, the revisions now point to a more visible slowdown trend in household consumption (from the 7.3% gain in 4Q12 to 4.1% in the latter part of last year), while inventory destocking was not as large as was previously suggested.

Net-net, the revised GDP numbers now look more consistent with our understanding of the macro developments last year. All that said, the data is obviously backward-looking and does not change our outlook for this year (0% GDP growth).

Daria Isakova, Vladimir Kolychev
VTB Capital analyst


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