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Positive start to the week

Global developments. The initial reaction of the major equity markets to the result of the Crimean referendum was positive, and they also shrugged off the announcement of US and EU sanctions on named Russian individuals. The announcement by the PBoC at the weekend of a widening in the RMB’s trading band seems likely part of a strategy to unwind the RMB carry trade, which is seen by the authorities as contributing to the surge in Chinese credit pressures.  Spot USDRMB rose to 6.16 having been at 6.05 at the start of this year. In terms of economic data, US industrial production rose 0.6% MoM in February, which was better than expected, and the New York Fed’s general business conditions index edged slightly higher in March. Eurozone CPI inflation was revised down to 0.7% in February and is at its lowest since the inception of the euro in 1999. Four Eurozone countries are actually experiencing deflation, Greece, Cyprus, Portugal and Slovakia, while in Spain and Ireland, inflation is only 0.1%. Today’s macro agenda includes updates on the German ZEW survey for March, the Eurozone trade surplus, US CPI inflation (expected to fall to 1.2%) and US housing starts. In the UK, the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, delivers the annual Mais Lecture on economic policy.
Alexey Zabotkin, Neil MacKinnon, Akin Tuzun, Digvijay Singh, Sergey Galkin, Ilya Piterskiy
VTB Capital analyst


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