This morning, we have published our regular Russia Early Indicators report, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for the last winter month of 2014. We provide key extracts from the report below.
February’s early economic statistics (survey-based and hard data) revealed a pin-sized upturn from January’s weak levels. Worsening domestic demand limits the incentives for production and, alongside the turmoil on the financial markets, could well lead to a broader destocking and grim business sentiment. At the same time, in February the cold weather seems to have pushed headline IP up to the growth area, yet remaining in the neighbourhood of zero. In a nutshell, we do not expect any growth rebound in the quarters to come and, if anything, see a greater risk of a technical recession.
Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst
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