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Sentiment turns positive


Global developments. Global equity markets recovered as Ukrainian tensions eased and international investors took the view that any potential spill-overs onto the global economy and markets are limited. Otherwise, it was an uneventful day in terms of economic data flow and there were no surprises from President Barack Obama’s Budget for fiscal year 2015. China’s annual meeting of the National People’s Congress starts today and is to feature updates on economic growth targets. It was expected the authorities would likely to stick with a 7.0-7.5% target, and according to this morning's news they announced a 7.5% target. However, the main challenge is managing the transition away from an investment-led model of growth as well as defusing excess credit in the economy. Today’s macro agenda includes updates on Eurozone GDP, retail sales and PMI ahead of tomorrow’s ECB policy meeting. In the US, the ADP private sector employment survey provides guidance on Friday’s key jobs report. There is also likely to be interest in the ISM services index for February as well as the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book (an input into the next FOMC meeting on 18-19 March).

Russia (RTSI +6.2% @1,184, RUB +1.2% @36.10). The Russian market bounced back after the panic sell-off on Monday and extended gains following the balanced press conference by President Vladimir Putin. Sentiment was dominated by the situation in Ukraine. All major blue chips were up from 3 to 5%. The heaviest oversold securities – banks, utilities and companies with Ukrainian exposure – advanced more considerably.

Alexey Zabotkin, Neil MacKinnon, Olga Danilenko, Akin Tuzun, Digvijay Singh, Sergey Galkin, Ilya Piterskiy
VTB Capital analyst

CIS, Russia, USA

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