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Weekly CPI: inflation remained at 6.2% YoY as at 24 February

According to Rosstat, CPI growth reached 0.65% during 1-24 February. Over the reported period, the average daily price growth edged slightly down to 0.027% (vs. 0.028% a week ago). The key CPI growth drivers this week remained broadly similar to the previous period (in order of importance): onions (+4.0%), potatoes (+2.6% WoW), vodka (+0.8 %) and cabbage (+3.2%). We think full-February headline CPI will show an increase in annual growth to 6.2-6.3% YoY, with a monthly advance of 0.7-0.8%. Overall, this will likely depict a correction after a rather tangible decline in the CPI growth pace (-0.4pp to 6.1% YoY) in January on inflation coming back in vodka and vegetable items. Looking beyond February, headline CPI is likely to remain sticky around 6% over the next 2-3 months on the back of weaker currency, but resume its downward trend in mid-2Q, and especially in 2H14, to 4.5% by the year-end.
Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst


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