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Macro week ahead

 
24.02.2014
Today, the Polish Central Statistical Office is to unveil its retail sales report for January. Tomorrow, we have the GDP release on 4Q13 performance in South Africa. Then on Wednesday, Rosstat is due to publish its regular weekly CPI data in Russia (for 18-24 February). The week ends with consumer confidence for this month in Turkey.

The last week of winter is likely to be light in terms of economic data releases.

In Poland, the lower than we expected data on retail sales and output in December might bring a downward revision of the preliminary estimate of 4Q13 GDP growth at 2.7% YoY (due on Friday). January’s retail sales, nevertheless, could prove that the economy is set to revive in the near term, without spurring inflation higher amid excess capacity.

South Africa seems to have experienced a quite strong rebound over the latter part of last year on a surge in mining production. So, GDP growth might have intensified above 4.0% SAAR in 4Q13. However, any pick-up would likely be temporary and a gradual recovery over this year would be limited by tighter monetary policy (to shore up the rand) and the ongoing widespread strike in the platinum sector called by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU). Note that mining accounted for 57% of export earnings in 2013, and platinum metals alone for 25% of the mining production index.

In Russia, the only interesting release is the weekly CPI reading, which is likely to show a further slowdown in vegetable prices (that started decelerating a week ago) and early signs of the softening second-round effect in vodka price growth. We expect the monthly headline CPI to tick up to 6.2-6.3% YoY in February.

Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Tags:
GDP, CPI

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