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Industrial production returns to the red, with a 0.2% YoY drop in January

The deceleration in manufacturing output to zero (vs. 2.4% YoY in 4Q13), was the main trigger of IP weakening last month. Production of metals lost momentum, as did machinery (motors, cars and trucks) and some construction-related goods (cement and concrete). The mining sector remained the key support for IP growth, albeit with a slight decrease to 0.9% YoY (vs. 2.0% YoY) on slower growth in non-reported mining items. The softer YoY decline in utilities (3.9% vs. 10.1%) also helped headline IP growth. In the meantime, while we take the IP report negatively, we do not expect any monetary policy move in the coming months as, according to the recent rhetoric, the CBR acknowledges that the negative output gap is expanding and so far feels comfortable with its on hold stance, given the well above target inflation.
Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst


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