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Ukraine under fire

Yesterday's session was fairly lively in terms of price action, as risk sentiment proved to be quite volatile during the day. In the morning, the deterioration in global risk appetite weighed on EM bonds, but closer to the end of the day the market in general recovered. In the Russian space, the bulk of high grade notes closed unchanged in price terms, yet sovereign benchmarks lost 25bp, price-wise, on the long end, with RUSSIA 43 closing at a yield of 5.81%. In the sub-investment grade spectrum, we noted demand for subordinated issues RCCF 18 (YTM 13.335) and RUSB 15 (YTM 7.62%), which firmed 40bp in price. Meanwhile, the longer dated bonds of VimpelCom slipped marginally in price, although the overall price changed little. In the CIS space, Ukraine traded actively with selling interest dominating the market. In bulk, Ukraine's mid- and long-term sovereigns now trade around 80-85pp in price. Thus, yesterday UKRAINE 17 9.25 (YTM 13.76%) slipped 2.00pp, while UKRAINE 22 (YTM 10.94%) lost 1.00pp. Non-government bonds generally outperformed, except for banks; in particular, EXIMUK 18 (YTM 18.76%) declined 2.00pp in price, while METINV 18 (YTM 12.76%), FXPOLN 16 (YTM 11.94%) and MHPSA 20 (YTM 12.77%) dipped 20-50bp in price.
Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst

bonds, CIS

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