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RUB: more of the same

On Friday, RUB weakened 0.6% against BASKET (40.69) and slipped 0.8% vs. US Dollar (35.15). Price action kicked off on a softer footing in the morning, probably because news that the CBR has revoked more banking licenses discouraged some market participants. Meanwhile, trade volumes subsided, as BASKET did not touch the top end of the band on Friday (which is 41.25 today), so the CBR's presence in the FX market has declined. Later in the session, lower crude oil prices on the back of China's disappointing PMI report and some general deterioration of global risk sentiment weighed on RUB. Hence, Brent lost 1.2%, having closed at 107.20 USD/bbl and today it is heading further down. Consequently, all commodity-based currencies came under pressure, with NOK and AUD down near 0.5%, while NZD weakened some 1.0% against USD. At the same time, EM FX traded firmly on Friday, with TRY and ZAR bouncing 0.6-0.8%. As a result, we estimate the gap between the performance of RUB and the EM FX index average widened to 4.5%, the largest since May 2013.
Anton Korovin, Maxim Korovin
VTB Capital analyst


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