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Russia Output & Demand - winter sun melts incomes


Rosstat has published its December statistics pack on economic conditions.

Unemployment increased to 5.6%, from 5.4% in November. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also ticked up to 5.6%.

Real retail sales growth decelerated 0.7pp to 3.8% YoY on the food component.

Investment in fixed capital growth managed to stay in the black with a 0.3% YoY increase, likely owing to the favourable base effect.

Construction declined 3.0% YoY, after the modest 0.3% YoY drop a month ago.

Real wage growth slowed to 1.9% YoY, from the downwardly revised figure in November (to 4.1 YoY).

Agriculture output growth normalised to 1.4% annual growth.

The weather-supported pick-up in manufacturing, coupled with the 15% growth in agricultural output, bodes well for our forecast of an ‘optical’ pick-up in GDP growth last quarter and annual FY13 GDP growth of 1.4% YoY. However, sluggish wages growth in December heralds a potential leg-down in consumption as the public sector continues to adjust to tighter budget constraints, while the private sector’s focus remains firmly on cost optimisation. Policy-wise, the report is likely to be neutral for the CBR and we expect the regulator to remain on hold over the coming months.

Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Russia, inflation, GDP

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