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Macro week ahead

 
27.01.2014

In Russia, the week starts with Rosstat releasing its monthly raft of economic statistics for the last month of 2013 (including data on internal demand), while on Wednesday, the regular weekly CPI is due. Otherwise, the main focus is South Africa’s central bank meeting on Wednesday, while on the data front we await the outcome of the consumer confidence poll in Turkey and, at the end of this week, the FY13 GDP reading in both Poland and Russia.

Following the rather upbeat industrial production and unemployment data for December (partly thanks to the warm weather and an additional working day), Rosstat is unlikely to publish another bunch of encouraging statistics this week. Even though several early indicators guided for some improvement in local demand, with the growth in car sales returning to the positive area and a pick-up in non-CIS imports, we are still not convinced that this is the beginning of a rebound in investment and consumer demand, as lending kept decelerating, the labour market is cooling and the expectations of businesses and households are at multi-year lows.

For the GDP reading, we expect FY13 YoY growth of 1.4%, which implies an optical rebound in 4Q13 on the strong base effect in agriculture and surging gas exports. It is slightly below the Bloomberg consensus of 1.5% YoY.

As for Poland, its data showed a general improvement in 2Q-3Q13 (along with the whole CEE-3 region). For the full year, we expect growth to slide to near 1.5% but then recover strongly in 2014, to closer to 3.0% YoY. The biggest headwinds were weak household consumption, fiscal tightening and dropping public investment as well as sluggish economies across Europe. This year, however, firmer local demand and a tighter labour market will boost the Polish economy, in our view.

Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Tags:
Rosstat, CPI, CIS

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