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Weekly CPI – added 0.38% for 1-20 January

According to Rosstat, CPI growth reached 0.38% during the first twenty days of January. During 14-20 January, the average daily price growth ticked down to 0.017%, from 0.020% in the previous week (and 0.021% for 15-21 January last year). The driving forces behind CPI growth this week were onions (+3.6% WoW), potatoes (+2.1% WoW), and vodka (+1.1% WoW).

Over last week daily CPI growth slightly moderated owing to further deflation in egg prices, slower increases in potato prices and a much eased effect from the hikes on regulated tariffs and prices on 1 January 2014 than we saw a week ago. All in all, CPI growth remained, in annual terms, at 6.3% YoY.

Assuming average daily price growth of 0.017-0.018% during the remaining days of January as well as an increase in the tariffs for railway services (these items are not in the weekly CPI sample), we might see full-month CPI growth of 0.6-0.7% MoM, or 6.1-6.2% in YoY terms.

This would therefore mark the beginning of a disinflation trend on the back of food and tariff inflation converging with the core inflation on the back of a beneficial base effect, good harvest and a new tariff policy.

Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, Rosstat

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