Oils – government plans no increase in excise taxes on oil products — neutral
According to Vedomosti, the government plans not increase excise taxes on oil products until 2017. Before 2016, excise rates will remain unchanged.
In our models, we forecasted an increase in excise taxes for oil products of 7-13% in 2014, 10-20% in 2015 and no increases afterwards. This was in line with previously approved excises for 2013-2015. The narrowing of the gap in excise between Euro4-5 and Euro3 oil products is one of the risks related to the efficiency of future investments in quality upgrades. The fact the government is not going to make any changes to the already approved excises is supportive for the investment planning of oil companies. However, from a stock performance perspective, the news is neutral.
Dmitry Loukashov, Alexander Kirevnin, Ekaterina Rodina, Elena Kopylova
VTB Capital analyst
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