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Monthly Equities Pulse - November 2013; outflows persist

 
27.12.2013
We have published Monthly Equities Pulse – November 2013; outflows persist. Excerpts from the front page are given below.

EM marginally slipping into the red. In November, EM equities funds switched to outflow mode, shedding –0.61% of AuM, as reported by the EPFR, while on a 3m view, outflows were not significant. Ex-ETF, the headline was marginally in the black.

Even GEM funds in the red. Despite being only a small part of EM AuM, LatAm funds (–3.81%; outside the historical 1 S.D.) contributed 30% of the overall EM outflows in November. We note that this month even GEM funds (-0.55%) registered outflows, moreover these were almost half of the overall EM outflow. Otherwise, EMEA funds

(–1.50%) were also avoided.

China looks better. In the CEEMEA region, we note sensible outflows from Russia (-0.87%) and Turkey (–0.81%), while Poland managed to stay marginally in the black. China was an outlier printing inflows of 0.33% of its equities funds' assets in November. In LatAm, Brazil (-1.06%) and Mexico (-1.46%, outside 1 S.D.) were in the red.

Outflows continue in December. The EPFR releases in the first three weeks of December imply that the overall monthly outflow from EM might accelerate to –1.25%. So far, MSCI EM has fallen 2% in December. China (–1.77%) switched to outflow mode. We also note outflows from Russia (–1.75%) and Turkey (–1.83%) as well as minor inflows into Korea.

Ilya Piterskiy
VTB Capital analyst

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