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RUB: a sharp upside move

The beginning of the QE tapering did not trigger a downside move in RUB, and turned out to be a ‘buy the rumour – sell the fact’ story. Thus, RUB appreciated to 38.10 vs. BASKET (i.e. by 0.8-0.9%) and to 32.62 vs. USD yesterday on the back of exporters’ flows ahead of the MET payment in December that triggered a covering of long hard currency positions by local market players. EM peers were weaker than RUB as 10-year UST yields moved closer to 3%. In the coming days, we think that the corporate sector will remain supportive for RUB; however, if this support diminishes it is likely that low activity ahead of the New Year holidays will be favourable for collecting some carry in long RUB positions and some positive seasonality could increase short-term RUB upside. Volatility is at a multi-month low, with the 1-month at 7.4% and the 3-month at 8.1%.
Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst


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