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Macro week ahead – November data for Russia


In Russia, the week starts with Rosstat releasing its monthly raft of economic statistics for the last autumn month, including data on IP, internal demand and the labour market. On Wednesday, the regular weekly CPI is due out in Russia. Otherwise, the main focus is the CBRT, NBH and Czech central bank meetings tomorrow, while on the data front we await the IP statistics from Poland.

On 19 December, President Vladimir Putin is due to give his ‘Big Press Conference’, the second of his third presidency.

In Russia, the meagre momentum in the economy is set to remain in the limelight: the situation is fragile and we see it continuing to be so in the coming quarters. We nevertheless still anticipate the November data exhibiting more signs of an optical recovery in agri industry on the low base from last year.

We do not expect any positive surprises on the production side, as the technical factors which supported IP in September-October reverted into the main drags in November (see Russia Early Indicators, of 5 December).

Consumer demand trends might have followed the downward path last month as non-CIS imports remained in red alike car sales, while retail credit growth reached a 27-month low. To add, the unemployment rate likely rose to 5.6% a month ago.

Putin’s ‘Big Press Conference’ might attract investor attention and could provide further insight on structural reforms, or elaborate on economic measures announced at the State of the Nation address.

While Russia will likely be evenly populated with top-tier data, elsewhere in CEMEEA we shall be focusing mostly on Tuesday when three regulators are to decide on interest rates. In Turkey, governor Erdem Basci explicitly signalled that the MPC was comfortable with the current tight policy until headline CPI slides closer to the 5% target. Hence, no changes are expected. In Hungary and the Czech Republic, the central banks are to remain dovish with the former to deliver another rate cut and the latter to stay on hold.
Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Russia, CPI

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