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Weekly CPI – annual inflation sticky at 6.5% YoY as of 9 December

Rosstat has released its regular weekly CPI report (for 3-9 December). The numbers imply that for the first nine days of the month, consumer prices added 0.14% (vs. 0.13% during the same period of 2012). The average daily growth in consumer prices slowed to 0.015% during the reported period, vs. the highest weekly pace since mid-October of 0.021% in the previous week.

Deflation in gasoline and normalisation in egg price growth (from 6% WoW in mid-October to zero last week), along with slower inflation in non-reported items, were the major factors for the decelerating pace of daily consumer inflation. Meanwhile, growth in fruit and vegetable prices continued to rise (+0.6% WoW vs. +0.4% WoW in the previous week), which reflects a seasonal pattern for the NY season and does not harm CPI dynamics in annual terms. Also noticeable was that beef and dairy prices gathered some pace, but we see it as temporary, with no major risks for headline CPI in December.

Given a 0.015-0.016% average daily price growth during the rest of the weeks in 2013, we might see full-month CPI growth at 0.5% MoM and 6.4% YoY in December. However, looking beyond the yearend, we remain convinced that this disinflation trend is likely to be entrenched significantly through the next year.

Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, inflation

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