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Weekly CPI

Rosstat has released its regular weekly CPI report (for 26 November – 2 December). The numbers imply that for the first two days of the month, consumer prices added 0.04% (vs. 0.03% during the same period of 2012). The average daily growth in consumer prices advanced to 0.021% during the reported period, the highest since mid-October, vs. 0.015% in the last week of November.

The weekly CPI structure reveals that continuous disinflation in eggs and butter was completely offset by the WoW uptick in gasoline prices, transport tariffs and accelerating price gains across non-reported items. The latter is the most puzzling part of the report. Looking through the detailed reports over the last few weeks we can spot several signs that it might be related to delayed pass-through from weaker RUB. We will be looking for further evidence in the monthly CPI report to be published later today.

We also note that the latest numbers suggest monthly CPI growth in November was 0.5% MoM or 6.4% in YoY terms (that is a tick faster than in October). In this regard, we mechanically revise our FY13 CPI forecast to 6.2% YoY (vs. 5.9% previously expected), but looking beyond the yearend we remain convinced that the disinflation trend is likely to strengthen significantly over 2014.

Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, Rosstat

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