The weekly CPI structure reveals that continuous disinflation in eggs and butter was completely offset by the WoW uptick in gasoline prices, transport tariffs and accelerating price gains across non-reported items. The latter is the most puzzling part of the report. Looking through the detailed reports over the last few weeks we can spot several signs that it might be related to delayed pass-through from weaker RUB. We will be looking for further evidence in the monthly CPI report to be published later today.
We also note that the latest numbers suggest monthly CPI growth in November was 0.5% MoM or 6.4% in YoY terms (that is a tick faster than in October). In this regard, we mechanically revise our FY13 CPI forecast to 6.2% YoY (vs. 5.9% previously expected), but looking beyond the yearend we remain convinced that the disinflation trend is likely to strengthen significantly over 2014.