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Macro week ahead

 
02.12.2013
This week starts with the PMI Manufacturing for November across our CEEMEA universe. In Russia, Rosstat is to unveil the monthly CPI report for November and the weekly CPI report for the first days of December. Otherwise, we have PMI Services for the last autumn month in Russia, as well as retail sales reports for November for the Czech Republic and Hungary. In addition, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is to hold the annual ‘Dialogue with the PM’ on Friday.

November PMI readings in the CEEMEA region are to be scrutinised for signs of expansion, confirming that the ‘optical rebound’ in Russia, as well as the economic recovery in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, has or will gain some momentum.

The core disinflation trend continues in Russia, we believe (though we shall be carefully watching for signs of a delayed FX pass-through impact). However, headline CPI is likely to stay flat at 6.3% YoY in November, as although food prices are becoming less of an impediment to headline disinflation, that is not enough to calm headline annual inflation. In the meantime, there are some upside risks to this estimate and we see a low probability of a 6.4% YoY print as well.

As far as the Dialogue with the PM is concerned, December is as usual full of addresses from top officials. That might highlight steps towards improving the investment climate, the campaign against corruption and bring more clarity on the future of structural reforms.

Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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