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Weekly CPI


Rosstat has released its regular weekly CPI report (for 6-11 November). It implies that for the first eleven days of this month, consumer prices added 0.17% (vs. 0.20% during the same period of 2012). The average daily growth in consumer prices picked up slightly to 0.016% during the reported period, from 0.014% in the previous week.

The weekly CPI structure reveals that disinflation in eggs and milk helped inflation to abate. However, this positive development was offset by the WoW advance in beef, onion, cabbage and water supply prices.

It is encouraging that eggs and milk prices, which stood high on oddly elevated fodder prices despite a drop in wheat prices, have reverted to a downward course in November. In addition, potato prices have not been accelerating and are levelling off at the current level; that could be linked to the harvest season catching up (it was disturbed by heavy rains in late August – early September).

Vegetable prices seasonally start gathering pace in November, so the uptick in several prices did not come as a surprise. However, the scale of the uptick needs to be watched closely.

The annual growth in consumer prices slowed to 6.2% as of 11 November.

All in all, we still expect YoY food disinflation to intensify in the coming months on softening inflation in wheat-related goods and vegetables and see CPI growth of 0.3% MoM and 6.2% YoY this month. In the meantime, there are now growing risks to our YE13 forecast of 5.9% YoY.

Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analysts


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