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Macro week ahead

During the week, all CEE3 countries are to release CPI data for October as well as first GDP estimates for 3Q13. In Russia, Rosstat is to publish its flash estimate of GDP growth last quarter as well as weekly CPI for 6-11 November, while AEB is to present statistics on car sales in October and MinFin should publish fresh data on budget execution during last month. In most of our CEEMEA universe (Russia, Turkey, Poland and Czech Rep.) statistics on external trade activity in September will be out.
The first official estimates of how well Russian and CEE3 economies performed in 3Q13 will likely be in focus this week. In Russia, contraction in investment activity along with moderating consumption growth does not look supportive for a sustained recovery. Nevertheless, we expect a slight up-tick in GDP growth (to 1.6% YoY from 1.2% YoY in 2Q13) on the back of robust gas exports and harvest normalisation.
Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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