The first bunch of economic releases for October (both survey-based and hard data) looks mixed, but shows tentative signs of improvement. On the one hand, PMIs and electricity consumption gained some traction, while gas output surged; on the other hand, contracting imports, car sales and rail cargo volumes put the chill on any excessive enthusiasm. Overall, this bodes well with our expectation of a growth uptick in the coming months, but only an ‘optical’ one on the back of the favourable base effect in agriculture and investments.
Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst
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