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Macro week ahead

In Russia, the week starts with the CBR monetary policy meeting (a final decision is due to be announced at 13:30 Moscow time). Later on, Rosstat is to publish a monthly raft of economic statistics for September, including data on internal demand, the labour market and IP. There are also the regular monthly CPI and IP reports for September in Poland.
CEMEEA news flow is likely to be dominated by Russia’s central bank monetary policy decision and the full-pack of economic statistics for September. We and consensus forecast no change in key policy rates today, while September’s statistics will likely show a technical recovery in investment activity growth. On the production front, strong European demand for gas as well as the positive calendar factor provide grounds for a recovery in IP growth, despite a slightly faster decline in rail cargo volumes and the fact that a rebound in electricity output can mainly be explained by the colder weather. As for local consumer demand, even though car imports emerged from a six-month recession and car sales dropped slowly, this might be linked to temporal support rather than reviving local demand. The continuing deceleration in retail lending adds to our cautious stance. Hence, we would treat expectedly positive signals in September as temporary, with still subdued underlying momentum, and see any further deterioration on the labour market as evidence of a cyclical component in the ongoing weakness in the economy.
Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Russia, CBR, CPI, Europe

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