September PMI indices, as well as the first hard macro data for the month, did not show any improvement, indicating that underlying growth momentum is reluctant to recover. IP growth in September seems to be supported by temporary factors, such as heavy gas exports, cold weather and an additional (vs. last year) working day. Nevertheless, continuous weakness in local demand has been putting downward pressure on manufacturing and services output, as well as employment and inflation.
Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst
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