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CBR preview

Today, the CBR is due to hold its regular monetary policy meeting. Elevated headline CPI is likely to keep the CBR from pulling the ‘rate-cut’ trigger this time. For now, it is more likely to focus on improving policy-transmission and might reveal further details about the new MTRO facility. However, medium-term inflation risks are abating, the labour market is cooling and the output gap is growing. That, coupled with the Ministry for the Economy’s idea to keep tariffs flat next year, which has good support in the government, means there is still a chance of a 25bp rate cut in September. However, we assess it as low.
Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst


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