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RUB: slightly behind EM peers

Yesterday’s trading activity in the Russian exchange market was fairly low as the US markets were closed. RUB closed 0.2% weaker against both BASKET (38.16) and USD (33.37), while EM FX peers generally ended on a stronger footing as global risk sentiment firmed. As we highlighted last Friday, so far the market does not price in elevated crude oil in RUB as the recent spike in oil looks temporary, especially in light of what looks like a declining probability of military intervention in Syria in the near term. At the same time, RUB has performed better than most EM peers during the last couple of weeks, so the current catch up between EM FX and RUB looks reasonable to us.
Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst

ruble, dollar

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