RUB: US economic data to be a key driver in the week ahead
On Friday, RUB was stable against BASK and traded for most of the day at 38.10. For USDRUB, EURUSD moving closer to 1.32 was the major factor supporting the move from 33.20 to 33.30 by the end of the trading session. At the same time, crude declined to USD 113.0/bbl, reflecting our and market expectations that oil's move could have been rather short-term (see our RUB in the world of breaking correlations, of 30 August). Thus, it has not been translated into RUB's appreciation. FX market activity could well be subdued today as the US is on holiday and the coming US economic data is likely to justify FX and bond market moves this week. At the same time, EMFX is catching up with RUB and appreciated 0.7-0.8% vs. RUB in the last week. This is also in line with our expectation of RUB being reluctant to go in line with EM peers due to the CBR’s presence and is likely to underperform them once the market stabilises.
Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst
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