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RUB: last week of dividends might not help stronger RUB


The FX market was rather quiet with the UK having a long bank holiday weekend. At the opening, RUB approached 37.95 vs. BASK and 32.94 vs. USD, but over the trading session gradually moved to 38.0 vs. BASK and 33.03 vs. USD, i.e. down 0.1% to the previous day’s close. In our view, weak FX dynamics at the end of the trading session can be explained by the lower risk tolerance to EM FX across the globe. Overall, RUB-specific FX dynamics are going to be influenced by dividend flows (however, we expect that to be limited because the bulk has already been executed, in our view). General EM FX market sentiment is finding some ground but remains weak because US economic data continues to be strong enough (yesterday’s US durable goods orders looked volatile but core capital goods orders have continued rising in recent months) for a ‘tapering’ in September.

Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst


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