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Macro week ahead


Tomorrow, there is due to be a monetary policy decision from the Central Bank of Hungary and the 2Q13 GDP releases from South Africa (preliminary) and Poland (final with detailed breakdown), as well as retail sales for July in Poland. Meanwhile, on Wednesday Rosstat is due to publish its regular weekly CPI data in Russia (for 20–26 August).

In Hungary, the National Bank is likely to continue its easing cycle on the back of still weak growth, subdued inflation and almost no reaction from HUF to the recent EM sell-off. Although the regulator might switch to rate cuts in smaller clips (10bp), we believe that a 25bp cut will be delivered.

In Russia, the only interesting release is the weekly CPI reading, which is likely to bring further evidence of headline disinflation in annual terms due to the favourable base effect in food prices and slower growth in gasoline prices. As far as WoW growth is concerned, we expect to see a deflation (as is usual for the end of summer) in the headline reading (for the first time since late August last year). The headline CPI for August as a whole is set to slide close to the upper boundary of the CBR’s target range (to 6.2% YoY). The 6.0% threshold will likely be crossed in either the first or the second week of September, as there is not going to be a new wave of regulated tariffs hikes (as was the case last year).

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

GDP, CPI, Russia, gasoline

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