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Weekly CPI

Rosstat has released its weekly CPI report (for 13-19 August). It suggests that for 1-19 August, consumer prices added 0.14% (vs. 0.19% in the respective period of 2012). The average daily growth in consumer prices ticked down a notch to 0.002% during the reported period.

Owing to the moderate deceleration in gasoline prices growth (to 0.4% in weekly terms, from 0.6% in the previous week), which were a key contributor to the headline CPI over 6-12 August, we saw slower WoW growth in the CPI (but only slightly: 0.03% vs. 0.04%) in 13-19 August. Thus, the headline CPI YoY growth decreased 0.1pp to 6.4% YoY as of 19 August. Meanwhile, the seasonal deflation in fruit and vegetables kept progressing and this trend is likely to continue in weeks to come, we think.

Hence, next week we expect to see WoW deflation (as is usual for the end of summer) in the headline reading and forecast monthly deflation in August at 0.1%. As a result, the end of month YoY growth is likely to reach 6.2%.

Please note that in early September 2012, there was the second wave of tariff hikes (which is unlikely to happen this year) and inflation in wheat-related products intensified. Given the normal harvest this year and no more hikes in tariffs (the second wave came on 1 August), we think there is likely to be much stronger YoY disinflation in September (rather than in August).

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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