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Non-CIS imports continued to stagnate

Customs has published its first estimate for non-CIS imports for July. The headline figure came in at USD 24.7bn, with the YoY growth of 0.3% being weaker than the 2.3% in June.

Despite the weak headline, the details are not that weak: excluding volatile components, imports gained 2.2% YoY (vs. the decline of 0.3% YoY last month) as in July the YoY weakness was mainly driven by the sharp decline in aircraft imports (- 68% YoY to just USD 314mn). Car imports are still the main drag on imports, with July's reading down 17.2% YoY at just USD 3.2bn. On a positive note, equipment imports dropped just 0.6% YoY, showing almost no weakness vs. June's level.

This report confirms the weak, but not weakening, internal demand dynamics in July.

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst


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