The CBR has published banking sector statistics for June, which were affected by the 3.5% MoM RUB depreciation.
Corporate loan books grew 1.4% MoM and retail 2.6% MoM. Excluding the FX factor, portfolios increased 0.5% and 2.4%, respectively vs. 0.7% and 2.7% in May. On a YoY basis, the corporate loan book growth stayed broadly flat at 11.9% and retail decelerated to 33.9% from 34.8% the previous month.
Retail deposits increased 2.7% MoM and corporate accounts 3.5% MoM (or 2.0% and 2.4%, excluding the FX effect).
Overdue loans declined 2.7% in the corporate segment and 0.2% in retail, with their respective shares in portfolios going down to 4.5% and 4.3% from 4.7% and 4.4% in May.
Weaker lending statistics (excluding RUB devaluation) suggest the pressure of seasonal factors that we might see in July-August, while the still strong inflow of customer accounts signals further pressure on NIM. We expect a rebound in economic activity in autumn and an increase in demand for loans following the expected CBR easing of monetary policy, although in YoY terms loan growth in the retail segment is likely to decelerate further. The decline in overdue loans is a positive signal, although we still anticipate that expectations of asset quality deterioration, especially in retail segment, will keep banks’ CoRs elevated in the near term. To recap, in June, Sberbank posted only a 0.5% MoM increase in its corporate loan book and 2.3% in retail, while a 2.9% growth of customer accounts pushed LDRs to 94%. We consider pressure on margins intact.
Mikhail Shlemov, Svetlana Aslanova
VTB Capital analyst
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