Yesterday, Deputy Minister of Finance Alexey Moiseev stated that beginning at the end of August the Ministry could start purchasing up to USD
According to recent MinFin scenarios for FY13 (Vedomosti as of 4 July), the transfer to the Reserve Fund is set to be cut to RUB 67.5bn from the RUB 373bn set in the Budget Law (base case). The Reserve Fund could even be unwrapped and RUB 241.5bn transferred to finance the budget deficit (in a conservative scenario of lower non oil & gas revenues). Hence, even under the base case scenario we are unlikely to see more than USD 25mn of daily purchases at the start of the programme at the end of August. Moreover, there is a possibility that MinFin could actually start selling foreign currency to get money from the Reserve Fund (this probability is low, as i) we believe that the transfer to the Reserve Fund will be positive and; ii) even if it is negative, it is unclear whether it will be converted on the open market or not).
As we do not expect MinFin’s operations this year to significantly influence RUB behaviour, we are reiterating our view that RUBBASKET will mostly be at 36.5–37.5 in 2H13.