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RUB: lagging other EM FX on the bounce


On Thursday, RUB opened around 32.90 vs. USD and around 37.40 vs. BASK, i.e. unchanged from the previous day. However, as risk appetite increased throughout the day, it lagged other EM currencies. However, after the NY opening, RUBBASK moved sharply down to 37.25 and closed around these levels. Furthermore, crude oil prices recovered to around USD 103/bbl, which is likely to provide further support to RUB. In our view, RUB might underperform other EM FX on the bounce, because the market positioning does not look excessively long USD vs. RUB (the overnight swap closed below the CBR offer at 6.5%) and fast position cuts are unlikely. In addition, corporate tax-related flows have just come to an end and their support is likely to be visible closer to mid-July.

Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst

dollar, ruble

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