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Output & Demand May


Rosstat yesterday published its May statistics pack on economic conditions.

The unemployment rate declined to 5.2% from 5.6% in April. However the seasonally higher demand on the labour force masked an upturn in the SA unemployment rate, which rose slightly (staying near 5.4% during the spring).

Real retail sales growth slid to 2.9% YoY, the lowest since February 2010, from 4% YoY on average in 4mo13, mainly due to a non-food annual sales growth that was almost 50% slower than in April.

Investment added 0.4% YoY in May following two months of decline.

Construction growth rebounded to 1.7% YoY from the sharp drop of 3.7% YoY in a month ago.

Real wage growth slowed to 5.7% YoY in May from the (almost 100%) upwardly revised figure in April (to 8.5% YoY), which we explain by the larger advance salary payments prior to May’s holidays (as there was no spike in the WDA growth pace).

The May economic data pack from Rosstat paints a bleak economic picture (albeit not as bad as expected) that can be summarised by the 1% YoY GDP growth in May (MinEconomy’s estimate). On the demand front, investment growth remained near zero and real growth in retail sales slid to a three-year low, while industrial production printed its second deepest contraction since October 2009. Some of this weakness might be obviously linked to three fewer working days this May YoY — but not all (due to slower WDA growth of key indicators).

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Rosstat, GDP

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