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CPI weekly: YoY growth stayed at 7.3% YoY of 17 June

 
20.06.2013

Yesterday, Rosstat released its weekly CPI report for 11–17 June. The average daily growth in consumer prices picked up to 0.016%, from 0.015% during the previous week (still staying below the daily price growth pace a year ago in the same period (0.018%)). The main CPI driver remained growth in potato prices, which advanced to 6.2% WoW vs. 4.5% WoW in a week ago. Gasoline prices stayed unchanged after a week of deflation.

The inflation report suggests YoY inflation growth at 7.3%, with CPI adding 0.27% over 1–17 June (vs. 0.38% in 1–18 June 2012). Importantly, the similar average daily price growth in June this and last year de facto imply a YoY deceleration, as in June 2012 actual growth reached 0.9% MoM (despite the weekly CPI reports showing 0.5% MoM growth).

We note that the favourable base effect in fruit and vegetables continued to intensify: this was the fourth week with lower fruit and vegetables prices growth compared with the respective period in 2012. In our view, the vegetables prices trend is likely to be downward over coming weeks. That, coupled with the abnormal intensification in vegetable prices growth last year, will likely lead to strong headline disinflation. Hence, we expect headline CPI to come in at 6.8–6.9% YoY in June 2013.

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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