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Key events are CBR’s monetary policy decision

This week is to start with the regular meeting of the CBR’s Board of Directors on monetary policy (10 June). We also expect the May statistics on the sales of new passenger cars (AEB, 10-11 June) and on the federal budget balance (from MinFin, 13-14 June). The CBR is to publish the external trade balance for April (11 June), with Rosstat releasing its regular weekly report on the CPI for 4-10 June on Wednesday.

The CBR monetary policy meeting is this week’s main economic event in Russia. In the current environment (headline CPI at a 21-month high and not that bad economic data for April) we expect the CBR to ease only medium-term refinancing conditions 25bp. We note that this meeting will be the last chaired by Sergey Ignatiev, who has been governor for 11 years.

May car sales. Car sales in May (especially taking into account Avtovaz's weak sales which have already been announced) might surprise to the downside (with a decline even larger than the -8% YoY in April).

May’s federal budget balance. The slight bounce back in RUB-denominated oil prices supported oil and gas revenues, but in May non-oil and gas revenues are usually a quarter lower. This, combined with steady budget execution, would result in a moderate deficit last month.

External trade balance for April. The trade surplus seems to have narrowed given the decline in oil prices combined with stronger imports (according to preliminary data on non-CIS imports).

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

CBR, CPI, ruble, oil, gas

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