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CBR Monetary Policy Preview

Today, the CBR is due to decide on key interest rates.
The meeting will be the last chaired by Governor Sergei Ignatiev: with repo rates left unchanged he would keep his anti-inflation image. Although the regulator is close to broadening easing, the almost two-year high in headline CPI is set to prevent the CBR from making the next step this time. We will likely see only medium-term rates cut, similar to the previous two meetings, although the importance of such a step for the money market would increase this time. At July’s meeting, we expect policymakers (chaired by Governor Elvira Nabiullina) will have no choice but to cut short-term repo rates, as June will bring sharp headline disinflation and also given the large negative surprise from May’s economic report.
Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

CBR, inflation, CPI, REPO

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