The set of early indicators for May paints a bleak picture for both the supply and demand sides, which can be only partly attributed to the extended May holidays this year. We expect a YoY decline in industrial production last month (after growth picked up in March-April), as manufacturing output likely contracted, while mining and electricity production growth decelerated sharply. On the consumption front, early indicators flag weak household and investment spending.
Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova, Mykyta Mykhaylychenko, Raza Agha
VTB Capital analyst
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