This week contains only two working days as 1 May is the Spring and Labour Day public holiday in Russia, while 2-3 May are official days off. Hence, we are only likely to get the first datapoints for April next week (6-8 May), including Manufacturing PMIs and the full-month CPI report. There might also be the CBR monetary policy meeting, which is officially scheduled for the first half of May (although that is highly unlikely, in our view).
The extended May holidays this year could well lead to a technical worsening of economic growth over the last month of spring as there are only 18 working days this year (vs. 21 in 2012). To recap, after the readings deteriorated significantly in February (largely because of the leap year effect), March brought some relief with a recovery in most of the key indicators. However, we see a gradual moderation from March’s levels as there are still no obvious grounds for growth to revive and the May holidays will likely intensify this moderation further, bringing GDP closer to stagnation.
Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst
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