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Russian oils: possible changes in taxation

According to Vedomosti, Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov has commented on possible changes to oil taxation. Siluanov speculated that if export duty on fuel oil is to be increased by 70%, with excises also slightly shifted up, then the MET rate might be left unchanged. However, there was no data on the increase in excises. The decision has not been finalised.
The potential increase could have a 2% effect on a company’s EBITDA on average, we estimate. However, this is still subject to an excise increase. While the potential effect is not particularly significant and the fact that MET might be left unchanged is positive, at least sentiment wise, we nevertheless believe that overall this development substantially disrupts sentiment in the sector. Continuous changes in taxes do not help the transparency of the sector or the financial predictability of investments. We believe that the news is neutral at this stage, but expect there could be some negative sentiment in the sector once the final decision is made.
Dmitry Loukashov, Alexander Kirevnin, Ekaterina Rodina, Elena Kopylova
VTB Capital analyst


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