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CPI at 7.0% as of 15 April


Rosstat yesterday released its weekly CPI report for 9-15 April. The average daily consumer price growth accelerated further to 0.023% (vs. 0.016% the previous week), mainly on the pickup in price growth in eggs and sugar (to 1.1% WoW and 0.8% WoW vs. 0.7% WoW and 0.1% WoW in a week ago, respectively). Potato prices remained a key CPI driver, adding 3.4% WoW last week, showing almost the same pace as the week before.

Vodka prices increased a mere 0.2% WoW (similar to the two previous reported periods). 

Last week's CPI report suggests that weekly growth accelerated to 0.16% (vs. 0.11% a week ago) while CPI annual growth remained at 7.0%. Seasonal inflation in vegetables this year has started earlier than last year: this will support headline CPI YoY growth in April, but will lead to a stronger decline in May, we believe. We see ongoing acceleration in daily price growth as temporary; however, we have now slightly amended our full-April forecast to 7.0-7.1% YoY. 

Dmitri Fedotkin, Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova, Mykyta Mykhaylychenko
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, Rosstat

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