Yesterday, Deputy Minister for the Economy Andrey Klepach announced some amendments to the current official forecasts for 2013. Among the principal changes, MinEconomy revised its FY13 estimate for Russian GDP downwards to 2.4% YoY (from 3.6% YoY), despite the higher forecast for average oil prices of USD 105/bbl (it had previously expected USD 97/bbl).
MinEconomy's estimates for the aforementioned indicators are now almost exactly the same as our base case forecast.
We see downside risks to our forecast on the back of the weak economic performance in 1Q13 and delays in developing infrastructure projects under the ‘infrastructure bonds’ framework. Further downside risks to growth could arise if, as we expect, monetary stimuli are delayed and/or reduced.
Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst
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