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CPI at 7.0% as of 8 April


Yesterday, Rosstat released its weekly CPI report for 2-8 April. During the first eight days of the month, the CPI added 0.11% (vs. 0.14% for 1-9 April 2012).

Over the reported period, the average daily consumer price growth picked up to 0.016% (vs. 0% on 1 April 2013 and 0.015% in the respective week a year ago), mainly on the acceleration in the growth of prices for fresh vegetables, in particular on potatoes (3.5% WoW vs. 2.2% WoW in a week ago) and cabbage (1.6% WoW vs. 0.9% WoW). Vodka prices added a mere 0.2% WoW (similar to the previous reported period).

Last week's CPI report suggests that annual CPI growth remained at 7.0% (the same as at the end of March).

The pick-up in fruit and vegetables prices has started earlier than a year ago (when it began in May), hence it might add some upwards pressure on the headline CPI reading in April. However, as the growth in fruit and vegetable prices is not going to be that fast (assuming a normal harvest), we expect it to drag down CPI from May. In our view, the headline CPI might stay at 7.0% YoY or ease to 6.9% YoY in April. 

Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova, Mykyta Mykhaylychenko, Dmitri Fedotkin
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, Rosstat

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