The March PMI indices, coupled with the first official data points for last month, did not really bring any improvements or changes for the worse, indicating that economic growth remains at low levels. Local consumer demand is decelerating; in particular, there were visible declines in both car imports and car sales last month. Meanwhile, some rebound in the mining and electricity sectors on the back of the colder weather has likely supported IP from deterioration, despite the unfavourable calendar factor. Overall, in March we anticipate a modest correction in the key monthly economic indicators from February’s depths, while GDP is still running below its potential.
Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova, Mykyta Mykhaylychenko, Dmitri Fedotkin
VTB Capital analyst
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